Commentary

FBO: Number Crunching, Week 8

If Brett Favre is healthy, he has a chance to feast against the Patriots (truly)

Originally Published: October 28, 2010
By Aaron Schatz | Football Outsiders
Getty ImagesIf Brett Favre can play, the Pats could legitimately be a solid opponent for him to get back on track.

Each week, Football Outsiders takes a look at every game on the NFL schedule with a mix of interesting numbers and in-depth statistical analysis. Much of the analysis is based on DVOA, which takes every single play during the season and compares it to the league average based on situation and opponent. DVOA and Football Outsiders' other advanced stats are explained here.

Sunday 1 p.m. games

Washington Redskins at Detroit Lions (FOX)
Detroit has the league's best rushing offense in the red zone but ranks 28th passing in the red zone. Washington has matching strength and weakness on defense. The Redskins rank 24th against the pass in the red zone but fifth against the run.

Let's bring attention to one of the best, most overlooked units of this NFL season: The Redskins kick coverage team. Redskins kicker Graham Gano is having a poor year on field goals and kickoffs. However, the coverage team has kept opposing returns to an estimated 11.4 points worth of field position worse than average, and the Redskins haven't allowed a single kick return over 27 yards.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Dallas Cowboys (CBS)
If Maurice Jones-Drew has a big day against the Cowboys, it probably will be carrying the ball rather than catching it. The Cowboys have the best defense this year against running backs in the passing game. Those opposing backs have managed less than 15 receiving yards per game.

Jacksonville defensive tackle Terrance Knighton was one of the best value picks in the 2009 draft (he went straight from the third round to the starting lineup) and having a good sophomore season. Knighton is one of two defenders with more than 12 tackles and a 100 percent stop rate (Jason Jones of Tennessee is the other).