Commentary

FBO: Number Crunching, Week 6

You can beat the Ravens, especially if you work them with the pass on first down

Originally Published: October 11, 2010
By Aaron Schatz | Football Outsiders
Getty ImagesWelker's battled with Balto before, and he'll be a key factor this time out.

Each week, Football Outsiders takes a look at every game on the NFL schedule with a mix of interesting numbers and in-depth statistical analysis. Much of the analysis is based on DVOA, which takes every single play during the season and compares it to the league average based on situation and opponent. DVOA and Football Outsiders' other advanced stats are explained here. Remember that 2010 numbers are still based on a very small sample size.

Sunday 1 p.m. games

Seattle Seahawks at Chicago Bears (FOX)
The Bears have the best defensive DVOA in the league in the first half of games, but rank only 16th on defense in the second half.

The Seahawks have been gashed by opponents' third receivers this year, giving up big games to the likes of Demaryius Thomas (eight catches, 97 yards), Buster Davis (three catches, 82 yards), and Patrick Crayton (three catches, 57 yards).

Miami Dolphins at Green Bay Packers (CBS)
Miami's offense is sixth in DVOA rushing on third downs, while Green Bay's defense is an extremely poor 31st against the run on third downs.

Miami has the league's best defensive DVOA against passing in the red zone so far this season.


For the full breakdown here, you need to be an ESPN Insider.