FBO: Number Crunching, Week 5

Each week, Football Outsiders takes a look at every game on the NFL schedule with a mix of interesting numbers and in-depth statistical analysis. Much of the analysis is based on DVOA, which takes every single play during the season and compares it to the league average based on situation and opponent. DVOA and Football Outsiders' other advanced stats are explained here. Remember that 2010 numbers are still based on a very small sample size.

Sunday 1 p.m. games

Kansas City Chiefs at Indianapolis Colts (CBS)
If the Chiefs are going to stay undefeated, they'll need to milk every possible yard out of their special-teams advantage in this game. The Colts have terrible special teams year after year. They currently rank 25th in Football Outsiders' special-teams ratings and haven't ranked above 20th since 2003. The Chiefs are currently third in special teams, with their strongest performance on punt returns. Now they just have to figure out how to stop Peyton Manning and force the Colts to punt.

So far this year, the Colts have the league's best fourth-quarter offense but the worst fourth-quarter defense.

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Aaron Schatz

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• NFL analyst for ESPN Insider
• Founder of Footballoutsiders.com
• Contributes regularly to "Numbers Never Lie"