Commentary

FBO: Number Crunching, Week 3

Keys this week: Cowboys' draw play, Bears in the red zone, Falcons spreading field

Originally Published: September 23, 2010
By Aaron Schatz | Football Outsiders
Getty ImagesMarion Barber will look to get sprung on the draw play a few times this weekend.

Each week, Football Outsiders takes a look at every game on the NFL schedule with a mix of interesting numbers and in-depth statistical analysis. Much of the analysis is based on DVOA, which takes every single play during the season and compares it to the league average based on situation and opponent. DVOA and Football Outsiders' other advanced stats are explained here. Since it is still early in the regular season, this week's notes are a mix of 2009 and 2010 statistics. (Proper year should be noted in each comment.) Remember that 2010 numbers are based on very small sample size and do not include opponent adjustments.

All times listed below are ET.

Saturday 1 p.m. games

Tennessee Titans at New York Giants (CBS)
A surprising statistic from 2009: Despite having such a dangerous running game, the Titans used play-action fakes on only 16 percent of passes (that's below the NFL average), and they gained the same average yards per pass with a play fake as they did without.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (CBS)
Eight of the 10 passes thrown to tight end Kellen Winslow this season have been on third down, and he's caught all of them, five for first downs. Oddly, he's been targeted only twice on first or second down, and didn't catch either pass.