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The most surprising story in the AFC early this season has to be the contribution the offense has made to Baltimore's 3-0 start. The Ravens are averaging 23.3 points per game, more than enough considering the defense is allowing just 6.7 points per game and is playing at a level reminiscent of the Super Bowl-winning team in 2000.

The only major offseason personnel change Baltimore made to its offense was picking up quarterback Steve McNair in a trade with the Titans. The biggest improvement McNair has brought to the Ravens' offense compared to Kyle Boller and Anthony Wright -- who split time as the starting QB last season -- has been his lack of mistakes.

The two methods I use to measure a quarterback's mistakes are the bad decision and weighted bad decision metrics. The bad decision metric measures how often a quarterback makes a mistake that could lead to a turnover. The weighted bad decision percentage measures the cost of the quarterback's mistakes.

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