Potential 2013 draft trade spots

Bill Polian looks at several QB-centric draft pivot points in Round 1

Originally Published: April 23, 2013
By Bill Polian | ESPN Insider
Geno SmithAP Photo/Alex BrandonOne of the great unknowns of the first round is where Geno Smith will land.

In what likely will be a highly unpredictable draft, we've finally started to get a little bit of clarity. If the Kansas City Chiefs go through with their rumored trade of tackle Branden Albert to the Miami Dolphins, it seems apparent that Kansas City will use the No. 1 overall pick to take an offensive tackle -- likely either Luke Joeckel or Eric Fisher.

Then the intrigue begins.

NFL teams are trying to decipher a fairly cloudy picture at the top of Round 1, attempting to predict how the draft will unfold in order to ensure themselves one of their top targets. As I've said previously, most teams will be able to guess the first-round picks with about 75 percent certainty. But every year a draft has what I call pivot points, where the expected progression of picks goes out the window and the draft veers in an unexpected direction, usually due to a trade.

Traditionally, the first round is more predictable because teams usually select the best player on their board, making sure they're getting the best possible value for that draft slot. This season, we have an interesting situation due to the disparity of the value of the 2013 quarterback prospects and the overall value of the QB position in the NFL. Take a look at the top of the draft order and you'll see a pretty obvious theme. Poor quarterbacking cost many of these teams in 2013, and they have an obvious need at the position. The problem is, in my estimation, none of the quarterbacks in this draft warrant a selection at the top of the draft.

So what happens now? In my mind, picks are going to move and we're going to see some trades. And remember, trades at the top of the draft board are easier now than ever, in an era of cost certainty around the picks.

Let's run through Round 1 to see which picks may be in play and how QB-centric trades in the 2013 NFL draft could unfold.


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