Top-10 draft pick scenarios

Hold on now. Don't put it down just yet that Indianapolis will win its way out of the No. 1 pick in the 2012 NFL draft. If the Colts lose their next game, they'll still be in line for the No. 1 pick and will begin what should be a very interesting offseason as it pertains to the quarterback position. But what if they do manage to win their way down the draft board?

For starters, it'll certainly shake things up in the top 10. But let's start now with an already shaken top 10 -- literally, the 10 teams that would draft first if the season ended today based on the standings -- and start looking at the needs and scenarios. Just remember a couple of things:

• The value argument: Although many believe that teams drafting high are more married to drafting on need -- after all, they are apt to get the pick of the litter at each position group -- the opposite can be true, and you'll see it when I discuss Indy. When you're drafting high, you can't be married to need alone, because even with the lower cost tacked to these picks with the new collective bargaining agreement, you can't miss.

• The need argument: I am using a preliminary list of needs. Remember, free agency is back in play this year, so many of these roster holes can be targeted before April's draft.

With that, let's speculate on some early scenarios.

Indianapolis Colts

Top needs DT, OL, WR, QB

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Mel Kiper Jr.

Football analyst

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• ESPN NFL Draft analyst since 1984
• Contributes to SportsCenter and ESPN Radio
• Writes weekly for ESPN Insider