Originally Published: March 27, 2009

Big changes without Stafford at No. 1

If Detroit doesn't take Matthew Stafford, the Seahawks will be waiting

Share
McShay By Todd McShay
ESPN.com
Archive
The "SportsCenter" producers posed this question to Mel Kiper and me earlier this week: How much of a shake-up would it be to the top 10 picks of the 2009 NFL draft if Detroit were to avoid taking Georgia QB Matthew Stafford with the No. 1 overall pick?

It took only a few minutes of shuffling players around to realize how significant the difference would be. Here's how the top 10 unfolded on "SportsCenter":

  1. Detroit Lions -- Jason Smith, OT, Baylor
  2. St. Louis Rams -- Michael Crabtree, WR, Texas Tech
  3. Kansas City Chiefs -- Aaron Curry, OLB, Wake Forest
  4. Seattle Seahawks -- Matthew Stafford, QB, Georgia
  5. Cleveland Browns -- Brian Orakpo, DE, Texas
  6. Cincinnati Bengals -- Eugene Monroe, OT, Virginia
  7. Oakland Raiders -- B.J. Raji, DT, Boston College
  8. Jacksonville Jaguars -- Mark Sanchez, QB, USC
  9. Green Bay Packers -- Aaron Maybin, DE/OLB, Penn State
  10.  San Francisco 49ers -- Andre Smith, OT, Alabama

But why stop at the top 10? Below is Scouts Inc.'s projection of how things would unfold through the first two rounds in such a scenario, but before we get to the rest of the picks, here are a few quick notes explaining some of the key differences: • With Jason Smith going No. 1 in this scenario, Crabtree becomes the better value pick at No. 2 for St. Louis, which needs a wide receiver as badly as it needs an offensive tackle.

• Seattle has greater needs, such as outside linebacker, safety and offensive tackle, but using the fourth pick on Stafford makes sense considering Matt Hasselbeck's age (33) and durability concerns.

• Raji is falling a bit right now because of some off-the-field concerns (weight issues, discipline, 2007 academic suspension), but a few teams will still be willing to take a chance on him in the top 15, including the Raiders at No. 7.

• I'm still not convinced the Jaguars would draft Sanchez at No. 8, but it would be much easier for them to pull the trigger if Crabtree is off the board.

• Missouri WR Jeremy Maclin is a victim of circumstance in this scenario, falling all the way to the Chargers at pick No. 16. San Diego has several bigger needs to fill, but Maclin is too good a value to pass up, and he could add a vertical element to that offense from the slot position. The run on wide receivers clearly will occur in the middle of the first round.

With all this in mind, here's a look at how the first day of the draft could unfold if Stafford is not the Lions' choice at No. 1:

The entire Day 1 projection in this scenario -- where other big names land; how it could affect teams with big needs at specific positions; and which players would be the best remaining on the board after the second round -- is for ESPN Insiders. Insider

To continue reading this article you must be an Insider