Updated: March 30, 2015, 09:30 AM EST

McShay: 2015 NFL Mock Draft 4.0

There's a new selection at No. 2 in projection of all 32 first-round picks

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The 2015 NFL draft is now a month away, making it a good time to release my fourth mock draft projection of all 32 first-round picks.

My tape study of nearly all the top prospects is now complete and the free-agency frenzy is behind us, so we're dealing with a much clearer picture of team needs compared to version 3.0. There's also been a change to the draft order in this edition, with the Saints taking the No. 31 pick from the Seahawks as part of the Jimmy Graham trade.

Given all that's happened over the last month, significant changes were inevitable, and it was an interesting process for me to project where different players could land if there are any surprises among the first few picks, compared to what has been considered conventional wisdom to this point in the draft process.

But where there isn't a change is with the No. 1 pick, as I still have the Tampa Bay Buccaneers taking Florida State quarterback Jameis Winston. I'll go more in-depth on my reasons why below, but in my opinion if the team is comfortable with his past behavioral issues, he's the clear No. 1 player in this class and one of the best quarterback prospects to enter the NFL in the last 10 years.

Here is my 2015 NFL Mock Draft 4.0, which includes a new prospect being drafted with the No. 2 pick.

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Jameis Winston
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-10)
COLLEGE: Florida State
Class: Soph
HT: 6-3
WT: 231
POS: QB

Analysis: In deciding whether or not to use the No. 1 overall pick on Winston, the Bucs are going to have to evaluate him from an off-field perspective. Are they comfortable enough with his past behavior and his maturity level to make him the face of their franchise? At the moment it seems like the answer is yes, as co-chairman Joel Glazer said last week that he'd approve of either Winston or Marcus Mariota as the No. 1 overall pick. I think Mariota is still a possibility to be selected here, but purely from an on-field standpoint, I think Winston has a clear advantage. He is one of the best QB prospects to enter the league in the last 10 years in terms of the skills that translate to NFL success, including reading defenses, anticipating throws and delivering the ball accurately.

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