Commentary

BCS path looks solid for Oregon Ducks

Rough showing against Cal, yes, but Eliminator model loves Ducks' path from here

Originally Published: November 14, 2010
By Jeff Dooley | ESPN Insider
Getty ImagesNotre Dame running Utah off the field on Saturday likely changed the perception of TCU.

At several different points on Saturday, it looked as though there could be some significant shake-ups in the BCS title race. The Georgia Bulldogs jumped out on top of the Auburn Tigers -- who were up 21-7 at one point -- while the TCU Horned Frogs struggled with the San Diego State Aztecs -- they were down two touchdowns at one point -- and the Oregon Ducks, Ohio State Buckeyes and Stanford Cardinal all looked shaky in spots. OSU ended up rolling, Stanford got more magic from Andrew Luck and Oregon won but scored only 15 points, which seems shocking for that team this season.

Ultimately, though, no upsets happened at the top of the polls; the Associated Press poll's top 10 teams all came out victorious. The biggest news in the AP poll was the flip-flopping of the Boise State Broncos to No. 3 (they had been No. 4) and TCU moving from No. 3 down to No. 4. What this all means for the Eliminator rankings is that there are still some statistically flawed candidates at the top of the BCS and conference standings (Auburn, TCU) and some teams lurking that maybe aren't getting their just due yet (Ohio State, Texas A&M Aggies).

Our model looks at the BCS and league races from a statistical perspective, seeing which teams this year most closely resemble the profiles of past champions in each conference and in the BCS national championship. Among the things revealed this week is the one team that currently sits with the best chance of not only making it to the national title game but also winning the whole thing.