Commentary

FBO: Predicting the BCS

Making a case for one-loss teams

Updated: October 19, 2009, 7:31 AM ET
By Brian Fremeau | Football Outsiders
Getty ImagesMark Ingram leads a Tide team that will be wearing a large bull's-eye on its back the rest of the season.

With the release of the first BCS standings of 2009, most of the attention will be paid to the undefeated teams at the top -- Florida, Alabama and Texas. The best teams from the best conferences have the inside track to the BCS national championship game, and if the Longhorns, Crimson Tide and Gators keep winning, they'll no doubt maintain their relative BCS positions week in and week out. Once Florida and Alabama settle matters in the SEC championship and Texas takes care of business in the Big 12, a neat and tidy BCS national championship match could be formed: Big 12 champion versus SEC champion. It's a common narrative this time of year, even when recent BCS races have been anything but neat and tidy.

Brian Fremeau

ESPN Insider
• Has been a contributor to ESPN Insider and ESPN The Magazine since 2009
• Creator of the Fremeau Efficiency Index (FEI), a measure of college football team efficiency
• Contributor to Football Outsiders and his own site, bcftoys.com