I had a decent week last week, going one-over against the line, putting me 12 over for the season versus the number. The good was picking Stanford to give Oregon fits. The bad was picking East Carolina to keep it tight with Virginia Tech. And the ugly was picking Notre Dame to pound Navy. Here are this week's guesses:
Greg Schiano's team might be the lowest-regarded 6-2 team from a big conference in the country. Rutgers also is just 3-2 at home -- but has won three straight over the Bulls. I think USF's ability to get pressure though will be the difference as RU is just 102nd in sacks allowed. The pick is USF 23, Rutgers 14.
Noel Devine seems to thrive on these off-night national TV stages -- or, at least he did until that Friday night clunker at USF two weeks ago. However, WVU is just 1-2 on the road this season while Cincy is averaging around 45 ppg at home. The pick is Cincinnati 38, WVU 27.
The Bears are coming off a big win, but Colt McCoy is playing -- according to Mack Brown -- the best he's ever played at UT. Look for that hot streak to continue since Baylor is 82nd in pass defense and 91st in total D. The Bears also have scored only 17 points in their last two home games and both of those were against defenses that were nowhere near as good as this UT group. The pick is Texas 48, Baylor 7.