Insider's NCAA Tournament Guide

Updated: April 2, 2006, 6:49 PM ET
The Insider simulation engine went 2-0 in the national semifinals of the NCAA Tournament. The prediciton for Monday night's title game has Florida winning its first national championship. Check out all the simulations:




Before filling out your Tournament Challenge bracket, take some time and do your homework. Insider's Tournament Guide offers historical analysis of the bracket and in-depth breakdowns on all 65 tournament teams to help you make smart picks.

Team Reports

In-depth scouting reports on each team, plus results and average winning percentage based on more than 3000 simulations.

About the Simulations: Results are based on more than 3,000 simulations for every NCAA Tournament game, calculated how each team's performance changes in response to game conditions and opponent's abilities. Each game is simulated one play at a time and the game is replayed a minimum of 3,000 times to generate forecasted winning percentages and player statistics.

Secrets of the Bracket

Predicting a national champion
Peter Tiernan looks at four different statistical models in his quest to identify this season's national champ.

Forecasting the Final Four
Although past performance does not guarantee future results, Peter Tiernan takes a look at strategy to forecast your Final Four.

NCAA Tournament toss-ups
Before you fill out your brackets, Peter Tiernan has some sage advice on toss-up picks in the NCAA Tournament.

Spotting Cinderella
Want to win your office pool and be the envy of fellow bracketeers? Follow Peter Tiernan's guidelines for spotting a Cinderella.

Seed-by-seed matchups
We know a No. 16 has never beaten a No. 1 in the men's NCAA Tournament, but Peter Tiernan breaks down the other seed matchups.

Key indicators
What factors contribute to a team's NCAA Tournament fate? Peter Tiernan takes a look at the trends that lead to over- and underachieving.

Evolving trends
NCAA Tournament trends are always changing. Peter Tiernan examines 11 trends that make filling out brackets more difficult.

Top tourney coaches
Which coaches have over- and underachieved in the NCAA Tournament? Which has done both?

Best/Worst performers
Which schools have over- and underachieved in the modern era of the NCAA Tournament? Peter Tiernan knows -- and the answers may surprise you.

Exceeding expectations
Which conference has the best performances in the NCAA Tournament? Peter Tiernan examines that question and much more.

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