Commentary

The latest odds and bubble battles

Imperfect 10s in Atlantic, Pacific dominate bubble talk

Originally Published: February 22, 2010
By Joe Lunardi | Special to ESPN.com

Welcome to the new, expanded edition of Joe Lunardi's Rundown, featuring his latest bracket breakthrough, Tournament Odds.

How is it different from Bracketology? With Bracketology, Lunardi tells you how the bracket looks on that specific day.

With Tournament Odds, Lunardi tells you how the bracket is likely to look come Selection Sunday, by comparing current teams with those in his extensive database of prior seasons.

The Race for the Top

And then there were eight -- eight teams, that is, with at least a 10 percent chance to be a No. 1 seed in next month's NCAA tournament.

The Michigan State Spartans are the latest team to play its way out of contention, losing at home on Sunday to the Ohio State Buckeyes. What's left on the board are the current No. 1 and No. 2 seeds, although it wouldn't be a surprise if the Buckeyes crack this list over the next couple of weeks.

Realistically, the Kansas Jayhawks and Kentucky Wildcats are going to be top seeds. If the Syracuse Orange get past the Villanova Wildcats next weekend, Boeheim's bunch will join KU and UK on the top line. That leaves the Purdue Boilermakers and Duke Blue Devils chasing the final No. 1, with the winner being whoever lasts longer in its respective conference tournament.


After the jump, you get: the latest bubble intel (Big East? Who's out and in?), teams that are softer than they appear, teams that are better than they appear, teams trending, and games to focus on this week. You want all that? Of course you do. To dive in, you must be an ESPN Insider.

Joe Lunardi | email

Senior Writer, ESPN.com
  • Resident college basketball bracketologist for ESPN
  • Contributor to SportsCenter, ESPN Insider
  • Published first public bracket in 1995

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