- Joe Lunardi, Senior Writer, ESPN.com
Welcome to the new expanded edition of Joe Lunardi's Rundown, featuring his latest bracket breakthrough: Tournament Odds.
How's it different from Bracketology? With Bracketology, Lunardi tells you how the bracket looks on that specific day.
With Tournament Odds, Lunardi tells you how the bracket is likely to look come Selection Sunday, by comparing current teams to those in Lunardi's extensive database of prior seasons.
As mentioned above, unlike Bracketology, our Tourney Odds program is more predictive. It essentially compares current teams with similar teams from prior seasons in our database to forecast how schools with those profiles tend to fare come Selection Sunday. It is most instructive at the very top of the bracket (e.g., identifying No. 1 seeds) and most confounding at the bubble (e.g., determining the bottom of the at-large pool).
For the next several weeks, we'll take Insiders under the hood of our Tourney Odds program as a companion to each edition of Bracketology. If you don't like how the numbers look for your team, just wait. With six weeks to go until Selection Sunday, the picture still can change on a dime.
Just look at the top of our field. Current data identify 11 teams with at least a 10 percent chance of being No. 1 seeds.