ESPN Men's Basketball

Last year was a bad NCAA Tournament to be a low-seeded underdog. Unlike 2006, when 11th-seeded George Mason made its historic run to the Final Four, 2007 produced only three modest upsets. That was easily the lowest number of Cinderella surprises in the 23 years of the 64/65-team era. And if you think 2008 will be a "by the numbers" repeat of last year, think again.

Conditions are ripe for another tourney of double-digit upsets, and your bracket pool will likely be won by the person who can identify the right favorites to fail and longshots to advance. Of course, Cinderella spotting is tricky business. Settle on the wrong high-seeded victim and your bracket could collapse in the first weekend.

Fortunately, picking the right underdog isn't all guesswork. The Cinderella squads of the modern era have shared common attributes. When you know what they are, it's a lot easier to sniff out the upsets. Let's examine the factors that correlate with upsets and identify the darkhorses in this year's bracket who have the right statistical stuff to spring a surprise. (For a list of all the upset springers in the modern era, check out the historical brackets at www.bracketscience.com.)

To continue reading this article you must be an Insider