Last season's unlucky become this season's sleepers

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Face it, whatever reason you cite for watching the game, you wouldn't care so much if the game were a true test of superiority. Some of the sport's most famous games are ones in which the better team lost, and the zaniness that is March was built on a foundation of unheralded teams pulling out victories when they weren't given a chance.

The reasons the best team doesn't always win are varied, but they can be grouped into two categories. The first is what I'll call "consistency," or the natural variation of a team's play. Some days a great team is clicking on all cylinders and truly is unbeatable, but there are a few games during the season in which every team underachieves. Consistency is important in determining how often the better team wins; a great team that is inconsistent is more vulnerable to an upset.

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Ken Pomeroy

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• ESPN Insider college basketball contributor
• Produces proprietary college basketball statistics for his website, kenpom.com