The 10 most likely early upsets 

March, 11, 2012
03/11/12
8:23
PM ET
By Peter Keating and Jordan Brenner

Now that the NCAA tournament selection committee has spoken, it's our turn for a pronouncement: If you like big upsets, the kind we specialize in predicting here at GK Central, 2012 is going to be a whole lot more fun than 2011. Our model predicts a total of 3.4 upsets in the first and second rounds in this year's tournament, up from 2.2 last year.

If you're new to the blog, the definition and methodology for Giant Killers are conveniently located here. Take a look because it will help you understand and digest our early predictions.

In stark contrast to last season, nearly every mid-major and small conference is sending its best Giant-Killing prospect to the big dance. And it's not just teams with automatic bids that are attending the assassins' ball. Mid-majors earned 11 at-large bids Sunday, up from six last season. So even though Creighton, St. Louis, St. Mary's and Southern Mississippi landed in the middle of their brackets instead of in GK contests, and Murray State and Wichita State got seeded so high that they're Giants, not Killers, there's still plenty of potential for slayage. To prime you for deeper regional breakdowns on Monday and Tuesday, here's an early look at the top 10 most likely upsets for the 2012 tournament.


To see the most likeyl NCAA tournament upsets and get access to all of Insider's expert analysis and bracket-picking tools, sign up today.

Peter Keating

Peter Keating is a senior writer at ESPN The Magazine, where he covers investigative and statistical subjects. He started writing "The Biz," a column looking at sports business from the fan's point of view, in 1999. He also coordinates the Magazine's annual "Ultimate Standings" project, which ranks all pro franchises according to how much they give back to fans. His work on concussions in football has earned awards from the Deadline Club, the New York Press Club and the Center for the Study of Sport in Society.

Jordan Brenner | email

ESPN The Magazine contributing writer
Brenner writes for ESPN The Magazine and ESPN Insider. He covers the NBA and college basketball.
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Giant Killers
Giant Killers Blog

Giant Killers is Insider's annual metrics-based forecast of NCAA tournament upsets. A Giant Killer is a team that beats a tourney opponent seeded at least five spots higher. For a full explanation of our model, click here.

Peter Keating
Peter Keating

Peter Keating is a senior writer at ESPN The Magazine, where he has covered investigative and financial stories since 1999. His work on concussions in football has earned awards from the Deadline Club, the New York Press Club and the Center for the Study of Sport in Society. He joined the Giant Killers team in 2008.

Follow Peter Keating on Twitter.

Jordan Brenner
Jordan Brenner

Jordan Brenner is a contributing writer for ESPN The Magazine and ESPN Insider. He has covered pro and college basketball for the last decade and launched the Giant Killers project in 2006.

Follow Jordan Brenner on Twitter.

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