Commentary

Florida slightly favored in CWS final

South Carolina's marathon on Friday gives Gators the edge

Updated: June 27, 2011, 12:16 PM ET
By Jeff Sackmann | College Splits

Statistically, the South Carolina Gamecocks and the Florida Gators are dead even. The adjusted winning percentages that determine the College Splits Power Rankings are a nearly indistinguishable .797 (Gamecocks) and .788 (Gators), meaning that in any single game, South Carolina should have about a 51 percent chance of winning, and in a three-game series, that number edges all the way up to 52 percent. Not the kind of numbers that send you running to your bookie.

[+] EnlargeKarsten Whitson
John Korduner / Icon SMIHaving Karsten Whitson available to pitch on full rest in Game 2 is a major advantage for the Gators.

Of course, these percentages are based on an evaluation of the entire 2011 seasons of the two College World Series finalists, and they don't consider factors such as injury, fatigue and specific pitching matchups. Even if the overall stats point in the direction of South Carolina, these additional considerations tilt the scales in Florida's favor -- slightly more than 52 percent. However, the Gators need to strike first. If South Carolina pulls out a win in tonight's opening game, the entire complexion of the series will change.

Game 1


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