Statistical red flags in MLB draft
Even the top college prospects have some holes in their games
By the time a player has logged two or three college seasons and a summer or two in the Cape Cod League, scouts have had plenty of opportunity to evaluate him. Come draft day, teams have a good idea of what they're getting, but not all of it is good. Even the best amateurs in the nation have gaps in their game -- dimensions that haven't developed, inexplicable lapses in performance or fundamental flaws that could limit a player's potential later on. This year's college crop is a great one, especially on the mound. Still, no one in the first-round crop is perfect. Here is a glimpse at some red flags that could hold back some of this year's top picks.
Trevor Bauer, RHP, UCLA
Bauer's statistical profile is bulletproof -- he has a 1.27 ERA and 189 strikeouts in 127 2/3 innings. The downside: He finishes what he starts, no matter how many pitches it takes. He hasn't yet shown any signs of wear, shutting out Arizona State with 133 pitches on Saturday, but his workload is alarming, as he has thrown nine complete games. There are precedents: Justin Verlander and Tim Lincecum both withstood plenty of 120-plus pitch outings in college and went on to professional success. But even those two didn't go as long, as frequently, as Bauer has. Maybe he is one of the rare hurlers who can hold up to the workload of 130 pitches every time out. But for a pitcher from a major program in the 21st century, we're operating in uncharted territory.
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2011 MLB Draft Content
The Pittsburgh Pirates kicked off the 2011 MLB Draft by taking UCLA SP Gerrit Cole. Insider's Keith Law leads the coverage from Cole through the first round and beyond.
2011 MLB Draft6/7: Churchill: Analyzing Rounds 6-25
6/7: Law's Best of Day 2: American | National
6/7: Churchill: Analyzing Rounds 3-5
6/7: Churchill: Highlights of the second round
6/6: Law: Best and worst of Day 1
6/6: Churchill: Sandwich round analysis
6/6: Law/Churchill: First round analysis
MLB Draft Essentials6/6: Final mock: Nats add more star power
6/4: Law's Top 100: Setting up the draft
6/3: Mock 3.0: Starling on the rise
6/3: Churchill: Best tools in the draft
6/1: Sackmann: Statistical red flags
5/30: Mock 2.0: Gerrit Cole to Pirates
5/28: Churchill: 2010 NL Draft in review
5/27: Churchill: 2010 AL Draft in review
5/17: First full mock: Hultzen goes No. 1
5/12: Top 100: Movement in top 10
5/12: Cole goes first in modified mock draft
4/29: Future Fifty 3.0: Purke falls out
3/22: Future Fifty 2.0: Cole takes the top spot
3/22: Law: The Draft is not a crapshoot
2/17: Future Fifty: Rendon tops season's first ranking
2/17: Draft Order: How the teams will pick in the first and supplemental round