ESPN NBA

Originally Published: September 28, 2009

2009-10 Forecast: Portland Trail Blazers

The Blazers are on the right path, but will they prove themselves in the playoffs?

Comment Email Print Share

By John Hollinger
ESPN.com
Archive

Sam Forencich/NBAE/Getty ImagesIt's no stretch to say that Brandon Roy could lead Portland deep into the West playoffs this season.

GO TO: 2008-09 Recap     Offseason Moves     Biggest Strength/Weakness     Outlook

2008-09 Recap

They've arrived. After years of accumulating talent, 2008-09 marked the Blazers' arrival into the NBA's elite class. Portland won 54 games before succumbing to Houston in the first round of the playoffs, and that result still understates the quality of the Blazers' season. The Blazers racked up the point differential of a 59-win team and led all NBA teams in point differential after the All-Star break -- which, as longtime readers know, is a better predictor of future success than win-loss record.

Not that the win-loss record was shabby. Portland went 22-8 down the stretch of the season -- a 60-win pace -- and every loss came against a winning team. The Blazers appeared poised to make a deep playoff run but met their foil early in the Rockets -- a team they beat only once in the regular season, on a miracle last-second shot by Brandon Roy.

The Blazers succeeded with the unusual style that Nate McMillan imported from Seattle. His teams have a unique signature -- they regularly rank among the league leaders in offensive efficiency and offensive rebound rate while simultaneously finishing among the league's slowest-paced teams. Most people think of offensive juggernauts as wild run-and-gun outfits, but the Blazers succeeded with half-court execution and second shots much as McMillan's outfits with the Sonics did.

Portland played the league's second-slowest pace, averaging only 89.3 trips per side, and that both muted the players' averages and obscured how devastating they were offensively. The Blazers were deadly efficient, averaging 110.3 points per 100 possessions -- ranking second only to Phoenix in offensive efficiency. Despite a lack of brand-name players, they placed ahead of both the Lakers and Cleveland.

Believe it or not, they did it while barely shooting better than the league average. The Blazers rated eighth in both field goal percentage and true shooting percentage, which is another reason their offensive power stayed under the radar.

Instead, Portland overwhelmed opponents with sheer volume. The Blazers absolutely dominated on the offensive boards, with Joel Przybilla and Greg Oden doing most of the heavy lifting. Portland pulled down a league-leading 32.6 percent of its missed shots on the season, and all those second shots added up to hundreds more offensive opportunities over the course of the season.

As a result of the offensive rebounding prowess and a fairly low turnover rate, the Blazers were the league's runaway leaders in another category -- shot attempts per possession (where "shot attempts" include trips to the free throw line). The Blazers were the only team in the league to average more than one shot attempt per possession, and over the course of a game they averaged nearly four more than the league average. Those extra shots became the difference between a moderately good offense and a fantastic one.

Defensively, the Blazers were a bit more mundane. Rookie Nicolas Batum surprisingly earned a starting job out of training camp and provided a defensive stopper on the wings, while an extra year of experience for the young players and the addition of Oden helped Portland show solid improvement. They landed 10th in defensive efficiency, which is swell by most teams' standards, but the Blazers will need to push higher if they're going to challenge the Lakers.

The key to Portland's defense was, again, the rebounding. Portland yanked down 75 percent of opponent's missed shots, the fifth-best rate in the league, and that helped them overcome average numbers in other areas. The Blazers' opponent true shooting percentage of 54.4 was right at the league average, and they forced fewer turnovers than average.

In one respect, however, they were horribly unlucky. Portland opponents shot 80.3 percent from the line last season, far exceeding the league average of 77.1 percent -- no other team's opponents shot this well. It seems unrealistic to blame this on bad free throw defense. Relative to the league average, Portland lost 58 points because of this, which is worth about two games in the standings.

Combining this result with the Blazers' superior point differential yields a very interesting conclusion -- the Blazers had the offensive and defensive results of a 61-win team and were very unfortunate to win only 54 games. What that means going forward is that the Blazers are in much better shape than most people realize.

Offseason Moves

The Blazers entered the offseason with $7.7 million in cap space, room that could have been expanded to about $9 million by renouncing their rights to previous draft picks Joel Freeland and Petteri Koponen. The Blazers experienced an unusual amount of difficulty getting rid of their money. Hedo Turkoglu ditched them at the altar to sign with Toronto, Paul Millsap signed an offer sheet that the Jazz matched, and (reportedly) a last-minute pursuit of Lamar Odom also failed.

Signed Andre Miller for three years, $21 million. It took the Blazers a while to get there, but they eventually made a strong move with their cap space. Only the first two years are guaranteed, giving Portland an easy out if he's a bust, and his ability to score and push the ball from the point guard spot presents a nice contrast from Steve Blake. It's still unclear if he'll start or come off the bench -- though he's better than Blake in a vacuum, Blake tends to mesh better with the starters and Miller with the more up-tempo bench players. But the backup point guard spot was a disaster for Portland last year, so Miller will provide a major upgrade either way.

Drafted Victor Claver. The Blazers used their first-round pick on overseas talent Claver, a wise move because they can park him overseas and let him develop on somebody else's dime. He'll stay in Spain for at least another year while he develops, but it gives Portland a strong succession plan for Travis Outlaw's impending free agency.

Traded Sergio Rodriguez to Sacramento. Rodriguez had value but he wasn't working out in the Blazers' slow-paced system, so the Blazers sent him to Sacramento (along with enough cash to pay his salary) on draft day to create more cap space. That same deal allowed them to move up from 38th to 31st in the draft, where they selected Jeff Pendergraph.

Let Channing Frye go, drafted Jeff Pendergraph, Dante Cunningham, and Patrick Mills. Frye had to go to create the cap space to sign Miller, and in his place the Blazers inserted two power forwards drafted early in the second round. Pendergraph is more the interior tough guy, which is something the Blazers coveted, while Cunningham is an undersized face-up 4. Neither is likely to play much unless injuries hit the frontcourt and each could spend a big chunk of his rookie season with the Blazers' D-league affiliate in Boise. Mills, a much later second-round pick, is a speedy shoot-first point guard who hurt his foot over the summer and remains unsigned.

Extended Brandon Roy for five years at the maximum contract. We won't know the exact figures on the value of his extension until next year's cap number comes out, but it should be worth $85-$90 million. The final year is only 75 percent guaranteed, but it becomes fully guaranteed if he meets any of several conditions, so it's essentially a deal for the full max. Obviously, it's warranted given Roy's performance in his three seasons as a Blazer.

The more interesting question is that of teammate LaMarcus Aldridge, who is eligible for an extension but had not agreed to one as the team headed toward training camp. They'll have until opening day to cut a deal, and it seems something in the $10-$12 million a year range is fair value for his services.

Signed Juwan Howard for the minimum. Howard solves the Blazers' need for another big body to play the 5 should they suffer some injuries along the front line -- a contingency Portland must address given the injury histories of Przybilla and Oden. He's a replacement-level player who won't screw up, which is about what you get at this price.

Signed Ime Udoka to a one-year deal for the minimum. Udoka was a huge surprise as a training camp addition to the Blazers two years ago and has the inside track on Portland's 15th roster spot. While the Blazers don't necessarily need another small forward, he has enough beef to play as a smallball four and could set them to trade one of their surplus wings later on.

Biggest Strength: Size

The Blazers are an unusual team, because they're a slow-paced offensive juggernaut. The reason that style works for them is because they're huge everywhere. Run through the roster from top to bottom and the Blazers are bigger than the league average at every spot. The two centers, Przybilla and Oden, are 7-foot and 7-1, respectively, while power forward Aldridge isn't much smaller at 6-11. That stresses most opponents' frontcourts to the breaking point, as inevitably at least one of their players will give up multiple inches in the paint.

It's a similar story on the perimeter. Batum is 6-8 with long arms, giving him a reach advantage on virtually every opponent. Outlaw is 6-9 and can shoot over nearly any opposing 3, though he'll often be playing at the 4 this year, while Martell Webster is a chiseled 6-7. At shooting guard, Roy's size and strength at 6-6 give him the edge of most opposing 2s, and while Rudy Fernandez won't win any Mr. Hercules competitions, he's also a long 6-6.

The Blazers are big at the point as well. Miller is 6-2 and wide, one of the best post-up point guards in basketball, while Blake and Jerryd Bayless both stand 6-3.

The Blazers' size advantage manifests itself in multiple ways. For starters, the Blazers are awesome on the offensive boards, as noted above. But equally important is how much easier it makes things for their jump shooters. Because players like Roy and Outlaw can always get a shot away over their smaller defenders, the Blazers have little fear of letting the shot clock run down in search of a better look -- enabling them to comfortably play such a methodical style.

Defensively, Portland also leans on its length. The Blazers are a low-risk, non-gambling outfit that forces opponents to shoot over the top of its long arms, and they succeeded with that style last season.

Biggest Weakness: Frontcourt Depth

Hey, we have to pick something. The Blazers aren't exactly hurting at any of the five positions, but one thing to keep an eye on during the course of the year is all the bodies in the frontcourt. This may be where the failure to nab Millsap or Odom comes back to bite them, as the Blazers essentially have three big bodies in the frontcourt -- Przybilla, Oden and Aldridge. Beyond that, they're looking at Outlaw as a smallball 4, Howard as a replacement-level Band-Aid, or second-round rookies like Pendergraph and Cunningham.

Thus, if any kind of injury were to hit one of the three main frontcourt performers, it would leave the Blazers exposed against opponents with quality size … like, say, the Lakers, Spurs, Nuggets and Jazz. And that's not a remote possibility considering the histories of the players involved, particularly the two centers. Oden has gained renown for his susceptibility to injuries with a broken wrist his one year in college, knee surgery that knocked out his rookie season and then assorted injuries that cost him 21 games a year ago.

Less widely known is that Przybilla isn't exactly Cal Ripken, either. Though he played all 82 games a year ago, he's cleared 60 games in only four of his nine NBA seasons; in his five years in Portland he's missed 76 contests.

Chances are, one of the two will miss a substantial chunk of time at some point this season, and when that happens, it will test the remainder of the Blazers' frontcourt.

Outlook

It would be hard to come up with a team with more positive indicators than this one. The Blazers won five games fewer than their point differential would project, lost another two games to flukishly good foul shooting from their opponents, and added a top-notch point guard in the offseason without losing anyone of importance. The nucleus is still very young and some players could show rapid improvement this year, plus the Blazers regain the services of Webster after he missed all of last season with a foot injury.

Could they regress? Sure, if Roy can't maintain his superstar play of a year ago, or if Oden and Przybilla succumb to their frailty. By far the most likely scenario is that the Blazers are here to stay. Portland remains under the radar nationally because they don't have a marquee star and lost in the first round of the playoffs, but if somebody besides the Lakers is going to win the West, I'd put my chips on these guys.

Certainly, I'd expect them to get past the first round this year. After that it's a bit more of a crapshoot, but if the Blazers accomplish the same things they did a year ago and aren't beset by bad luck, they're a 60-win team. Chances are they'll experience an injury or two along the way and fall short of that standard, but they'll still rank among the last teams standing out West.

Prediction: 55-27, 1st in Northwest Division, 2nd in Western Conference