ESPN NBA Training Camp 2007

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2006-07 Recap

Here's the story everyone heard about the 2006-07 Cleveland Cavaliers: LeBron James, LeBron James, LeBron James, LeBron James, LeBron James, LeBron James, LeBron James.

Allow me to present an alternate narrative.

While King James certainly was a major factor, especially when his outrageous one-man show produced 25 straight points to defeat Detroit in Game 5 of the conference finals, the Cavs didn't succeed because of their ability to score.

In fact, they won in spite of it. James had a slow start to the season by his standards, and no shooters were on hand to help pick up the slack. Because of this the Cavs were an extremely poor offensive team for an NBA finalist, ranking 21st in field goal percentage, 18th in 3-point percentage, and below the league average in the frequency of both 3-point attempts and free-throw attempts. Not that more foul shots would have helped them much -- they were 29th in free-throw percentage, with James' disappointing 69.8 percent mark a huge reason why.

Overall, the Cavs' 52.2 true shooting percentage ranked 29th in the NBA. Yes, 29th -- only the Hornets were worse. They might have had the King, but it was one of the league's most easily defended teams. Several factors contributed -- they gave over 4,000 minutes to three guards, Eric Snow, Damon Jones and Daniel Gibson, who were practically worthless (at least until the Eastern Conference finals); they had another hugely disappointing season from guard Larry Hughes; and their offense continued to be one of the league's least imaginative, relying heavily on a play that in theory was a pick-and-roll and in practice was a pick-and-stand-around-while-LeBron-retreats-to-midcourt-and-the-shot-clock-runs-out.

However, despite those numbers Cleveland ranked 19th in offensive efficiency because of the one thing they did do well. That thing had little to do with LeBron: offensive rebounding. The Cavs didn't have a frontcourt All-Star (not counting LeBron), but the four-man combo of Zydrunas Ilgauskas, Drew Gooden, Anderson Varejao and Donyell Marshall was as deep and effective as any in basketball. The former three players all had offensive rebound rates above 11, making the Cavs one of only two teams to do so -- Washington was the other -- and because of them Cleveland was the league's third-best offensive rebounding team, pulling down 29.7 percent of its misses. That the Cavs had so many missed shots to pull down magnified the effect of the rebounding.

Cleveland's edge on the boards extended to the defensive end, and here LeBron was a much bigger factor. The Cavs were second in defensive rebound rate, pulling down 75.8 percent of opponents' missed shots; between the offense and defense Cleveland ranked second in the league in combined rebound rate.

Defensive Rebound Rate: 2006-07 Leaders
TEAM	RATE
Houston	77.0
Cleveland	75.8
San Antonio	75.7
Utah	75.1
Dallas	75.0
League average	72.9

But defensively, the Cavs were good at much more than just rebounding. This was the main reason they won 50 games and ended up in the Finals -- even on "first shots" the Cavs were the league's sixth-best defense, and overall they ranked fourth in defensive efficiency.

Cleveland was good at nearly everything, including forcing a high rate of turnovers and a subpar shooting percentage, but where they really excelled was in a specialty coach Mike Brown imported from San Antonio -- cutting off the 3-point line. Because his big men could handle one-on-one match-ups and rarely needed double-team help, the Cavs were able to shut of the 3. Only 19.4 percent of opponent attempts came from beyond the arc, the seventh-best figure in the league.

Additionally, those shots that did go up rarely found their mark. The Cavs led the NBA in 3-point defense, permitting just 32.9 percent from the floor -- allowing Brown to outrank even his mentor Gregg Popovich.

Opponent 3-Point Percentage: 2006-07 Leaders
TEAM	OPP. 3A/FGA	OPP. 3-PT%
Cleveland	.194	32.9
San Antonio	.170	33.4
LA Clippers	.208	33.9
Detroit	.190	33.9
Minnesota	.222	34.8
League average	.213	35.8

Brown hasn't received nearly enough credit for this. He's become something of a magnet for critics, and certainly his performance during the playoffs provided plenty of ammo in the strategy department -- he left a hobbled Hughes in the starting lineup in the Finals, showed little imagination in his offensive sets, and displayed an almost supernatural ability to run out of timeouts right before he really, really needed one.

But those defensive numbers blow me away. While having the big frontcourt players was nice, it wasn't obvious to anyone that this should be a great defensive team. Individually, not one Cav received even a single vote from the coaches for the All-Defense team (but Caron Butler and Gilbert Arenas both did -- thanks for paying attention, guys), and only Varejao and Snow appeared to be top-notch individual defenders. But the Cavs played hard, stayed in the team concept, and bothered opponents with a huge backcourt of 6-5 Hughes and 6-7 Sasha Pavlovic.

All that defense helped put them in position for LeBron's playoff heroics. But otherwise, it was a disappointing year personnel-wise. Pavlovic was the only other Cav to show major improvement, surprisingly emerging as a starter after three disappointing seasons to begin his career. James, Hughes and Ilgauskas all had off years, and Jones continued to be a massive disappointment after signing as a free agent two years ago.

That Cleveland could win the East owed to three things. Two of them were the weakness of the conference and the ability of James to make an otherwise horrid offensive team at least mediocre. But the most important was the defense and rebounding, and almost nobody mentioned it.

GO TO:    2006-07 Recap     Offseason Moves     Biggest Strength/Weakness     Outlook

GO TO:    2006-07 Recap     Offseason Moves     Biggest Strength/Weakness     Outlook

Offseason Moves

It was an offseason full of question marks for the Cavs. Actually, it still is. Cleveland's summer served as a case study in the limitations of restricted free agency, as Varejao and Pavlovic sat on the market all summer waiting for offers that never came. Meanwhile, the Cavs quietly bided their time, knowing they could match an offer if one came along.

The deadlock seemed headed for some potentially interesting turns as training camp opened. Pavlovic and Varejao both started looking at opportunities with European teams, while neither seemed terribly close to getting a deal done with Cleveland. If the Cavs can't keep Pavlovic, they'll survive, but losing Varejao would be a huge blow.

The negotiations remain ongoing and one presumes they'll find a way to keep both players on the roster, but as of today they aren't on the team. In addition, further questions loom if they return: Are they going to be in any shape to play? Will they be playing for their own stats with a mind toward unrestricted free agency next summer? Will their unhappiness with the contract process seep into the locker room?

Otherwise, it was another amazingly quiet summer for the Cavs, who had no draft picks, did nothing for three months in free agency, and then made two moves right before training camp started. There could be one more coming -- they have a $2 million trade exception that expires in mid-October.

• Signed Devin Brown
This was an outstanding move by Cavs GM Danny Ferry, waiting out the market to pick up some backcourt help right before training camp started. Brown might not seem like much of an impact player, and in fact he's fairly mediocre. But he's still going to help a lot, because the issue here is that the Cavs need somebody who is better than Snow or Jones. Compared to either of those two, Brown will seem like a godsend, and if he can replace the former two players with 2,000 minutes or so of league-average production, it's going to make a major difference.

Brown is important for another reason -- he can handle the ball well enough to play point guard in a pinch, especially for a slow-paced team like this one. So Cleveland can keep playing its big backcourt, using either Brown and Hughes or, if Pavlovic comes back, inserting Brown as the backup point guard behind Hughes.

One other training camp move to keep an eye on was the addition of Hassan Adams. His deal isn't guaranteed so he might not make the team, but Adams was fairly impressive in his rookie season in New Jersey and the Nets made a mistake cutting him. Adams' skills set isn't a great fit here because he's a slasher, not a shooter -- ask Hughes how that's worked out -- but in terms of pure talent he's worlds better than players like Snow and Jones.

• Traded David Wesley and cash to New Orleans for Cedric Simmons
This was a surprise move just before training camp to fill out the frontcourt depth, as Simmons was the 15th overall pick a year ago while Wesley is about to retire. Simmons had a rough rookie season and I'm not sure he'll be much of a player, but he can defend the rim. As a fifth big man you could do worse, and he comes fairly cheap.

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GO TO:    2006-07 Recap     Offseason Moves     Biggest Strength/Weakness     Outlook

Biggest Strength: The Frontcourt

People look at me cross-eyed whenever I mention that the Cavs have an elite frontcourt, but it's true. The four-man rotation Cleveland used last season made them one of the best rebounding teams in the game, and in addition three of the four frontcourt players can score. The leader is Ilgauskas, who is the Cavs' second offensive option thanks to his low-post game and ability to hit open midrange shots. The 7-3 center is an added threat because he's so good at tipping in offensive boards around the basket.

Gooden is another player who takes some unfair abuse because of his occasional mental breakdowns, but he can finish around the basket and hit open jumpers as well, and he's a good, quick defender when he's not having his space cadet moments. His backup, Marshall, is a serious 3-point threat the Cavs often turned to in crunch time to space the floor.

That leaves Varejao, the one weak offensive player of the group. However, he's easily the best defender, leading the NBA in offensive fouls drawn and doing more than his share on the glass. Losing him would have a big impact on the Cavs' high defensive ranking from a season ago.

Of course, joining them up front is another pretty good player in James. He has more than enough size to play power forward if the Cavs ever want to go small; that's an unpalatable option with the current backcourt, but one that might become more plausible down the road if some personnel changes happen.

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Biggest Weakness: Guard Play

Well, if the frontcourt is the big strength, then I suppose you can guess where the problem is. Let's not beat around the bush: Cleveland's guards stink. Giving nearly 25 minutes a game to a player as obviously finished as Snow was a year ago is a cry for help, and things don't seem to be much better this time around.

Brown is at least an upgrade on the Snow/Jones combination, but he might have to take the spot of Pavlovic if the latter player doesn't return. Not that Pavlovic should have been starting either. Even in his "breakout" season he was a marginal player, especially at the offensive end where he's average at best as a shooter and a horrid ballhandler.

Joining them are Hughes, who continues to disappoint thanks to poor health and worse shot selection, while Jones' inability to soften up defenses by knocking down jumpers has been a bit of a problem given that it's his one alleged skill.

If there's a hope here, it's Gibson. He had a very unimpressive regular season as a rookie but had some eye-popping performances in the playoffs, most notably when he scored 31 points in the clinching Game 6 win against Detroit. The Cavs will have to hope that series was a breakout, as opposed to a fluke, because the other candidates all have major weaknesses.

GO TO:    2006-07 Recap     Offseason Moves     Biggest Strength/Weakness     Outlook

GO TO:    2006-07 Recap     Offseason Moves     Biggest Strength/Weakness     Outlook

Outlook

People are dismissing the Cavs after watching their unimpressive performance in the Finals, something I don't understand since this is the same team that won the conference last season. Yes, they're hard on the eyes, but they're also fairly effective, and likely to be even moreso this season. For those who missed it, James showcased a much-improved jumper while plying for Team USA this summer, something that would add an entirely new dimension to his game if he maintains it this season.

Obviously, the Cavs' outlook improves quite a bit if Varejao and Pavlovic come back, which I'm still assuming in my prediction. If so, the big guys should again give the Cavs an underrated advantage. Meanwhile, even if the improved jumper proves illusory, James is likely to put up much better full-season numbers than he did last season. Additionally, the Cavs had the scoring margin of a 54-win team in '06-07, so if their scoring and defending don't change at all they're still likely to win more games.

Even the backcourt, in a weird way, can be spun into a positive. The Cavs' guards can't possibly play any worse, and the addition of Brown and development of Gibson could improve the play from those positions quite a bit. Additionally, any trade the Cavs make to add a real, live guard will provide a massive jolt to the offense, and Cleveland does have some assets with which to cut deals (Ira Newble's contract expires this year; those of Marshall, Jones and Snow run out in 2009).

I'm not sure Cleveland will get back to the Finals, simply because its neighborhood has become tougher. But it does seem to me that the Cavs will win more regular season games than a season ago, and as last season's playoffs showed, having a performer like James able to go 48 minutes in the postseason makes the Cavs an awfully tough out. While I'm not picking them, they're essentially co-favorites in the East with the Bulls, and if LeBron pulls off more magic in the conference finals nobody should be surprised. But if he does, let's try to remember to credit the defense and rebounding that made it possible.

Prediction: 54-28, 2nd in Central, 2nd in Eastern Conference