How bad are the Heat's odds?

Simulations show a team in trouble, but there are ways Miami can change that

Updated: May 18, 2012, 1:22 PM ET
By Stephen Oh | Accuscore.com
HeatRobert Duyos/Sun Sentinel/MCT/Getty ImagesThe Heat have better chances if they rebound better and make more 3s.

Even before their 19-point loss in Game 3, the Miami Heat (at least in AccuScore simulations) were already in trouble. The Heat were favored in Las Vegas, but the Indiana Pacers were actually winning 60 percent of our simulations. We might have been right picking Game 3, but no one could have predicted Indiana would be plus-16 on the boards, Dwyane Wade would score five points and the Heat would shoot just 37 percent from the field.

A healthy Chris Bosh would certainly shift the equation. Many observers and fans probably underestimated how much the Heat would miss Bosh. His inside presence -- and absence -- affects their defense a lot, not to mention the obvious issues of rebounding and scoring potential. In our simulations, as shown in the chart to the right, the Heat's chances of beating Indiana at home dropped 5.7 percentage points; on the road, the drop was 4.0 percentage points. Those don't seem that big, but they're reasonably significant numbers.

Now down 2-1, in 10,000 series simulations the Heat are winning just 41.7 percent of the time. Here are three things that need to happen for the Heat to improve their chances: