Current players on the HOF brink

Weighing candidacies of Vince Carter, Joe Johnson, others on the Hall bubble

Updated: August 11, 2014, 3:42 PM ET
By Kevin Pelton | ESPN insider

Joe JohnsonBenny Sieu/USA TODAY SportsIs Joe Johnson on his way to the Hall of Fame? The numbers say yes.

Last Friday, NBA stars Alonzo Mourning and Mitch Ritchmond were inducted into the Naismith Memorial Basketball Hall of Fame. As we finish celebrating their coronation, now seems as good a time as any to predict which current NBA players may one day join them.

Players such as Kobe Bryant, Kevin Garnett and LeBron James, among others, are obviously on track to reach the Hall. Other younger stars like Kevin Durant have years to burnish their résumés and seem likely to one day solidify their status. But there is a handful of veterans whose candidacy isn't so clear-cut. With the help of Basketball-Reference.com's estimate of Hall of Fame probability and my wins above replacement player (WARP) statistic, let's take a look at those cases and do our best to settle the debate. 

Here's an analysis of nine NBA All-Stars on the HOF bubble, including several international players. (Players listed by career WARP.) 


Vince Carter

Career WARP: 148.1
Basketball-Reference HOF probability: 71.3 percent