The predictably bad Knicks

Plus other projections that we saw coming -- and those we didn't

Updated: April 15, 2014, 1:31 PM ET
By Kevin Pelton | ESPN Insider

New York Knicks dejectedRobert Hanashiro/USA TODAY SportsRaymond Felton, Tyson Chandler and Carmelo Anthony won't be playing in the NBA postseason.

With the 82-game NBA regular season nearly complete, conclusions that looked hazy six months ago suddenly seem clear. Some of this season's trends or outcomes were predictable at the time, while others truly snuck up on us.

On the eve of the regular season's final night, let's take a look at three from each category.


Should have seen it coming

New York's regression

In October, the Knicks were coming off a 54-win season and had added a former No. 1 overall pick (Andrea Bargnani) to their rotation at low cost. How could things go wrong? Every way, as it turned out. Much of that regression looks predictable now -- and probably was at the time, if we had looked closer. Repeating a historic season beyond the arc (the Knicks have made 151 fewer 3-pointers than last season's NBA-record total) was unlikely, and they did nothing to improve their porous defense during the summer. That's why my SCHOENE projection system was able to correctly predict the bottom falling out.