ESPN NBA Draft

As discussed in Thursday's column about the latest trade talk (which has been updated for Friday to include all 30 teams and several new trade possibilities), one problem that NBA teams have in approaching next week's draft is that they are finding it extremely difficult to gauge which players will be available when they make their picks.

This applies to trade possibilities, as well. Several teams are interested in making a trade for a higher draft pick. While the conventional wisdom has been that none of the players at the top is worth trading up for, that is shifting as we get closer to the draft. Teams seem to be zeroing in more on whom they want, and several seem willing to move up to get them.

The problem is this: How high do you have to go to get your guy?

Or, if you are trading down, how low can you go and still have your guy on the board?

So many players are rated so evenly that teams are having a hard time coming up with an accurate draft range for each player.

For instance, Kentucky point guard Rajon Rondo could be drafted as high as No. 7 by the Celtics or as low as No. 22 by the Nets (a range of 16 spots).

What about J.J. Redick? Could be as high as the Rockets at No. 8 or as low as the Kings at No. 19.

Let's keep going. Rodney Carney? We hear the Timberwolves kind of like him at No. 7. The Hornets think they may be able to get him at No. 15.

Want the next Dikembe Mutombo? Mouhamed Saer Sene could be going to Utah at No. 14. Or maybe it's Phoenix at No. 21.

Michigan State's Shannon Brown? The Sonics like him at No. 10. So do the Lakers at No. 26.

Plus, at least 10 guys projected in the second round could slip into the first round on draft night. If they do, that means 10 projected first-rounders are in for a long night, and it makes life even more difficult in NBA draft war rooms. It hasn't been this volatile in the eight years I've been covering the draft.

And what truly sets this draft apart is the lack of consensus at the top, which puts players and teams in quite a predicament as they try to control their own fates.

Just like we do, NBA teams conduct mock drafts. They need to figure out who will be available to them.

One Western Conference NBA executive told me that his team did eight mock drafts and realized that the upper lottery could play out in vastly different ways, depending on what one or two teams at the top decide to do.

For instance, Adam Morrison could go No. 1 or No. 3 or No. 4 or No. 7 or, believe it or not, No. 8. And if you factor in trade possibilities, he could also go at No. 2, No. 5 or No. 6.

The same is true for Tyrus Thomas, Andrea Bargnani, Brandon Roy, LaMarcus Aldridge and Rudy Gay. They could go No. 1, or they could go No. 7 or 8 -- or, in some cases, slide out of the top eight altogether.

With the recent revelation that Aldridge and Roy have gotten promises and have shut down workouts, the situation has gotten even more mysterious, because that implies trades might be involved -- but even a promise, or a proposed trade, does nothing to guarantee that the player you're making the promise to or trading up to get will be available.

Don't believe me? Here are some scenarios that could play out on draft night.

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