A number of old-school GMs remain dismissive when it comes to using stats to evaluate draft prospects, but more and more NBA teams are employing stat gurus to develop formulas that can predict pro success.
Some of them run teams, like the Houston Rockets' Daryl Morey. Others, like Dean Oliver of the Nuggets, have been key consultants for years. And a handful of other teams are getting into the stat game for the first time.
Teams are using everything from projected PER (player efficiency rating) to WARP (wins over replacement player), EWA (estimated wins added), and all sorts of variations and compilations of formulas to project NBA success. Every team has its own system, and they rarely produce exactly the same results.
Our own John Hollinger recently weighed in with his Draft Rater formula to break down the 2010 prospects.
Hollinger's top 10 closely mirrors the top 10 on our Big Board, with the exception of Greivis Vasquez, who falls outside our top 30.
I talked to three NBA executives who use various forms of statistical analysis to rank their players to get a feel for what they're seeing. The GMs agreed to share their statistically based top-10 lists as long as I didn't disclose the team and as I long as I didn't divulge the statistical methods they were using.
I then aggregated those lists, and here's a look at what they came up with:
To see how the GMs ranked their draft boards and get analysis of a draft-defining workout in New Jersey this week, you must be an ESPN Insider.
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Chad Ford
Chad Ford covers the NBA and NBA draft for ESPN Insider. He also is a frequent contributor to ESPN The Magazine and makes weekly appearances on ESPN Radio and ESPNEWS.
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Fran Fraschilla
Fran Fraschilla is a college basketball analyst for ESPN and ESPN Insider. He formerly was the head coach at Manhattan, St. John's and New Mexico. He has been part of ESPN's NBA draft broadcast coverage each of the past five seasons.
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David Thorpe
David Thorpe is an NBA analyst for ESPN.com's Scouts Inc. and the executive director of the Pro Training Center in Clearwater, Fla., where he oversees the player development program for NBA and college players. David has trained Kevin Martin, Corey Brewer, Omri Casspi, Joakim Noah, Luol Deng, Tyrus Thomas, Yi Jianlian, Courtney Lee, Kyrylo Fesenko, Earl Clark, Jrue Holiday, DeJuan Blair and others.
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