Betting Jones vs Gustafsson

Finding the value in light heavyweight title fight and other bouts at UFC 165

Updated: September 19, 2013, 2:14 PM ET
By John Candido | FightMetric

Alexander Gustafsson and Jon JonesGustav Martensson/Getty ImagesBettors wonder if Alexander Gustafsson's size is enough to dislodge Jon Jones (right).

Following the nearly even odds of the UFC 164 main event between Benson Henderson and Anthony Pettis, UFC 165 will have the complete opposite. It is one of the most lopsided lines in the history of title fights, as light heavyweight champion Jon Jones defends his title against top contender Alexander Gustafsson in Toronto on Saturday.

Despite the UFC trying to sell Gustafsson as a compelling threat to the light heavyweight title, bettors aren't buying it, as they believe Jones will maintain his belt with ease Saturday night. We're here to look at the stats to find out whether this disparity is warranted and to find value in the lines for other fights at UFC 165.

Jon Jones (minus-900) versus Alexander Gustafsson (plus-600)

To educated MMA fans, it's obvious Jones owes most of his success to his unrivaled combination of size and reach for a light heavyweight fighter. In seemingly every fight, Jones has looked much bigger than opponents, utilizing his record 84-inch reach and 6-foot-4 frame to impose his will with impunity. So with the seemingly unbeatable Jones holding the throne with his size, the UFC has decided to match him with an opponent possessing a similar build. But the real question is whether there is anything more than the challenger's size that compares favorably with the champ.