Betting Johnson vs. Dodson

Finding value in all of the bouts for UFC on Fox 6

Updated: January 24, 2013, 2:32 PM ET
By John Candido | FightMetric
John Dodson and Demetrious JohnsonEd Mulholland for ESPNJohn Dodson and Demetrious Johnson will take center stage at UFC on Fox 6.

The UFC's flyweight division will finally receive mainstream exposure as its first champion, Demetrious Johnson, defends his belt on Fox's sixth televised event against former TUF winner John Dodson. The card will also feature one of the most exciting new fighters in the UFC, Glover Teixeira, against former light heavyweight champion Quinton Jackson.

To ensure a quality show for the national audience, two of the most talented fighters in the lightweight division, Donald Cerrone and Anthony Pettis, will battle. Plus Erik Koch will face off against Ricardo Lamas in the Octagon on Saturday night.

Here's a breakdown of the statistics and odds surrounding the fights to see where value lies in betting UFC on Fox 6:


Main event: Five rounds

Demetrious Johnson (minus-225) vs. John Dodson (plus-185)

Heading into his championship match against Joseph Benavidez, Johnson was getting no respect as a plus-210 underdog. In his first title defense, however, Johnson will be getting all of the respect he deserves, as he enters this main event as a minus-225 favorite. The question is whether contender Dodson will be a good value as the underdog after compiling a perfect record since entering the UFC.

Most notable in this matchup will be Johnson's wrestling ability, which led him to victory in his title-winning fight. Averaging 3.25 takedowns per 15 minutes, Johnson has all the necessary tools to control opponents on the ground. However, against Dodson, he may have a challenge despite his wrestling ability, with Dodson having successfully defended 100 percent of takedown attempts against him in his three UFC victories. Given that neither fighter has ever lost by a manner other than a decision, it's likely that this fight will come down to who can gain the most production over the course of five rounds.

While Dodson holds an impressive 4.53 strikes landed per minute (SLpM), the question is whether he will be able to maintain this pace well into the championship rounds. Given that Dodson has fought only once before in a five-round fight, which resulted in a split-decision loss, the advantage that Johnson has in his ability to persist into the championship rounds can't be overlooked.

In the event that Dodson is able to seriously prevent Johnson from taking him down -- and could likely get the best of him standing -- it isn't out of the question that he could pull the upset. Though possible, it's not likely, as Johnson should be able to dictate the pace and impose his will as he has done in the past against top opponents. For this reason, minus-225 in Johnson's favor seems like an accurate line for what should be an interesting and entertaining main event.

Insider's value pick:


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