Commentary

Betting UFC 143: Diaz vs. Condit

Analyzing and picking winners against the spread for all fights at UFC 143

Originally Published: January 24, 2012
By John Candido | FightMetric
Nick DiazJosh Hedges/Zuffa LLC/Getty ImagesNick Diaz is favored against Carlos Condit in the signature fight at UFC 143.

The dust will settle at UFC 143, as the five-month saga surrounding the welterweight division will finally conclude with the naming of an interim champion. Though the belt will be on the line, nerves shouldn't play a role in this one, as the featured fighters on this card are not strangers to title fights. Headlining the event is former WEC welterweight champion Carlos Condit versus former Strikeforce welterweight champion Nick Diaz.

If that isn't enough to give you your fill of former champions, the card's second billing will feature former IFL heavyweight champion Roy Nelson against former ADCC World Submission Wrestling heavyweight champion Fabricio Werdum. Impressive as they are, don't get lost in the credentials, as the stats paint a much better picture of where to find value in Vegas this Saturday night. Here are Insider's picks for UFC 143:

Fabricio Werdum (minus-125) vs. Roy Nelson (minus-105)

Neither Nelson nor Werdum has ever been submitted in his MMA career. This would seem to work against submission specialist Werdum, who has registered eight of 14 wins by submission. He also averages an active submission attempt rate of 1.74 per 15 minutes. But what most bettors will overlook coming into this fight is Werdum's striking ability, thinking that Nelson has the advantage in this area because of his history of spectacular knockouts.