How to bet UFC on FOX 12

Finding where the value lies on the main card, including Lawler-Brown

Originally Published: July 24, 2014
By Reed Kuhn | ESPN Insider

The UFC is back in San Jose, California, this week after back-to-back barn-burner events in Atlantic City, New Jersey, and Dublin. Both fight cards featured a smaller-than-full-size Octagon, and as prior analysis on cage size has shown, the tight quarters led to loads of exciting fights and early finishes.

Now with a much larger television audience awaiting the UFC's quarterly appearance on Fox (and in anticipation of the down side of the larger, full-size Octagon), matchmakers have stacked the deck with some heavy hitters to ensure casual fans get the excitement they seek on Saturday before heading into a lull in the schedule.

So before we get into the top three matchups on the card -- Dennis Bermudez vs. Clay Guida, Anthony Johnson vs. Antonio Rogerio Nogueira and Robbie Lawler vs. Matt Brown -- consider first how these the fighters stack up in our measure of striking power: the "Knockdown Rate." Note that all but one is "above average," and even more so when factoring in their respective weight classes. (Distance knockdown refers to any knockdown produced by a strike thrown from a distance as opposed from within the clinch. In general clinch strikes are easier to land, but less effective in terms of power.)