How much should Darvish be paid?
By projecting his performance we can figure out how much he's really worth
After much fanfare, we are one step closer to seeing Yu Darvish in a major league uniform. The Texas Rangers have won the posting auction with a reported bid of $51.7 million, and they now have a exclusive negotiating rights for 30 days with the best pitcher remaining on the market.
The big question, and one teams are trying to answer, is just what to expect out of Darvish. With a minor league or amateur pitcher, teams can generally take a "wait and see" approach. The $15.1 million the Washington Nationals needed to secure the services of Stephen Strasburg is just a fraction of the posting fee paid by the Rangers just for the rights to negotiate with Darvish.
So with Texas beginning negotiations with Darvish, let's take a stab at figuring out what he should earn. Using the ZiPS projection system, I can project his statistics over the next few years (you're welcome, fantasy players); and with a working knowledge of what teams typically pay for wins on the open market, we can calculate just how much Darvish deserves to be paid. So let's get to it.
To see how much Darvish's performance projects to be worth, become an ESPN Insider.
Offseason Buyer's Guide
RankingsNov. 3: Law: Top 50 free agents | Tracker
Nov. 4: Bowden: Projected value rankings
ReactionJan. 25: Bowden: How Detroit landed Prince
Jan. 24: Law: Fielder helps now, not later
Jan. 14: Bowden: Grading Yankees-M's deal
Jan. 13: Law: Pineda-Montero deal a win-win
Jan. 11: Law: Madson a steal for Reds
Jan. 6: Law: Cubs win Cashner-Rizzo deal
Dec. 31: Law: Quentin a mediocre fit in S.D
Buyer's GuideNov. 12: Buyers Guide: Catchers
Nov. 11: Buyers Guide: Relief Pitchers
Nov. 10: Buyers Guide: Starting Pitchers
Nov. 9: Buyers Guide: Third basemen
Nov. 8: Buyers Guide: Outfielders
Nov. 7: Buyers Guide: Middle infielders
Nov. 4: Buyers Guide: First basemen/DH
FeaturesFeb. 9: Perry: A case for the Nats
Feb. 7: Szymborski: Ellsbury to fall off
Feb. 6: Cameron: The cost of moving to third
Feb. 3: Meyers: Poor drafts doom Cubs, Mets
Feb. 2: Bowden: How to rebuild the Orioles
Feb. 1: Goldstein: How good is Cespedes?
Jan. 30: Szymborski: Projecting Angels, Tigers
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