Commentary

Resetting the NL postseason race

Breaking down how each NL team's playoff chances have changed since Opening Day

Updated: July 14, 2011, 12:51 PM ET
By Jay Jaffe | Baseball Prospectus
Jair JurrjensJake Roth/US PresswireThanks to the fine work of Jair Jurrjens, the Braves are in excellent shape to make the playoffs.

It's a phenomenon more familiar to the AL East, but right now, the most burning question regarding the NL East is in what order the top two teams will finish en route to the postseason. The Phillies (57-34) lead the Braves (54-38) by 3½ games; next, the Braves are eight games ahead of the Mets and lead all wild-card contenders by at least five games. The two teams hold the distinction of having most improved their Playoff Odds since our preseason PECOTA projections.

The All-Star break, of course, makes for a convenient time to re-evaluate the races relative to those forecasts. So let's take a look at how each team has done relative to what Baseball Prospectus' PECOTA projection system expected of it before the season.