- Ben Jedlovec, ESPN Insider
The sabermetric movement has made great strides over the past decade, but every once in a while, we're reminded of how little we actually understand about the game of baseball. Jose Bautista's breakout 2010 season was one such reminder of how bad we are at predicting future performance. How can a hitter come from complete obscurity to hit 50 home runs in a season?
Turns out, something hinted at that breakout in 2009, and we can use that information to predict breakout seasons for 2013.