Reprojecting the NL East

Bryce Harper's up, Cliff Lee's hurt and the division is wide open

Updated: May 1, 2012, 10:21 PM ET
By Dan Szymborski | Baseball Think Factory
BournRonald C. Modra/Getty ImagesIt's unlikely Michael Bourn maintains his current pace, but he's been spectacular so far.

A month may not seem like a long time in baseball, but it's long enough to dig a hole. Projections are valuable tools, but they never stand still, as new information about players and teams is added with each game that's played. In the ZiPS preseason projections, the Philadelphia Phillies just edged out the Atlanta Braves and Miami Marlins, with the Washington Nationals a little farther back and the New York Mets safely in the cellar.

Even after a couple dozen games, enough has happened in the National League East to turn the division upside down.

To calculate the rest of the season's games, the same Monte Carlo methods used to project the seasonal standings back in March were used, but the standings have been updated with new projections for each player and the win-loss records that are "in the bag" already. With April complete, here's how the new NL East projections look: