Who's next to 600 home runs?
Current big leaguers whose career arcs suggest they have a shot at 600 homers
At long last, Jim Thome hit his 600th career home run and became the eighth player in major league history to reach that milestone. Given the increase in home runs in the past 20 years, the 400-homer club has become almost old news, and hitting 500 homers is no longer an automatic ticket to Cooperstown.
But 600 homers is still a pretty rare feat -- you can count the club members without running out of fingers -- and many of the best players of this generation are likely to fall well short.
Who else will pass the 600-homer mark? Because waiting years and decades to find out isn't much fun, I used the ZiPS system to project the final home run totals for every player who looked to be even remotely on a 600-dinger trajectory. (Players like Geoff Blum or Juan Pierre need not apply.)
In ZiPS' estimation, just 10 active players other than Thome have at least a 2 percent chance to retire with at least 600 homers on their résumés.
For offensive environment, I used a level between 2010 and 2011, and I used the current home park for each player. A return to a higher level of offense or a change of park could increase or decrease each player's odds, but we don't have that information yet. For each player, I list the chances of a 600-home run career and, in parentheses, his expected career total.
Given that A-Rod is already past 600 homers, we can be pretty sure that 100 percent is accurate.
The only question surrounding A-Rod is whether he can pass Barry Bonds. ZiPS has given him a 50-50 chance for a couple of years, and he's right on target so far.
Become an ESPN Insider and read about the other current big leaguers who have a shot at 600 home runs.
MORE MLB HEADLINES
- Astros sign No. 1 overall pick P Appel to deal
- A-Rod met Bosch at ALCS, clinic crony says
- Kuroda, Suzuki carry Yanks past Dodgers
- Davis launches 2 HRs as O's trounce Tigers
MOST SENT STORIES ON ESPN.COM
Insider MLB Content
WEEK OF OCT. 30Nov. 5: Bowden: Grading the Jim Thome deal
Nov. 5: Law: Thome, Phillies aren't a great fit
Nov. 4: Bowden: Pricing the free agents
Nov. 3: Law: Ranking top 50 MLB free agents
Nov. 2: Jedlovec: Worst Gold Glove selections
Nov. 1: Meyers: Buyer beware of C.J. Wilson
Oct. 31: Cameron: Papi a fit in the Bronx
Oct. 30: Perry: Finding free agency solutions
Oct. 30: Szymborski: St. Louis without Pujols
WEEK OF OCT. 16Oct. 28: Law: Chapman still needs work
Oct. 26: BP: Batter-pitcher data is overrated
Oct. 24: FanGraphs: A blueprint for C.J. Wilson
Oct. 21: Cameron: Cards should bench Berkman
Oct. 20: BP: Why did Washington walk Punto?
Oct. 19: Szymborski: Sims favor the Rangers
Oct. 18: Bowden: Ranking all 50 WS players
Oct. 18: Jedlovec: Previewing WS defenses
Oct. 17: Perry: World Series hinges on relief
Oct. 16: Szymborski: Milwaukee without Fielder
Oct. 16: FanGraphs: Brewers' NLCS miscues
KISS 'EM GOODBYEOct. 30: St. Louis Cardinals
Oct. 29: Texas Rangers
Oct. 18: Milwaukee Brewers
Oct. 17: Detroit Tigers
Oct. 8: Arizona Diamondbacks
Oct. 8: Philadelphia Phillies
Oct. 7: New York Yankees
Oct. 5: Tampa Bay Rays
Sept. 29: Atlanta Braves
Sept. 29: Boston Red Sox
Sept. 27: Los Angeles Angels
Sept. 26: San Francisco Giants
Sept. 25: Cleveland Indians
Sept. 24: Chicago White Sox
Sept. 23: Oakland A's
Sept. 22: Los Angeles Dodgers
Sept. 21: Colorado Rockies
Sept. 20: Toronto Blue Jays
Sept. 19: Cincinnati Reds
Sept. 18: San Diego Padres
Sept. 17: Pittsburgh Pirates
Sept. 16: Kansas City Royals
Sept. 15: Minnesota Twins
Sept. 14: New York Mets
Sept. 13: Washington Nationals
Sept. 12: Seattle Mariners
Sept. 11: Chicago Cubs
Sept. 10: Baltimore Orioles
Sept. 9: Florida Marlins
Sept. 8: Houston Astros
Buster Olney's Blog
Daily insight from around the majors
MLB Rumor Central
Get news and rumblings before anyone
Updated top 50 prospects (7/15)
MLB Draft Blog
The 2012 draft prospect watch is well underway.
Keith Law's Blog
Everything prospects, baseball ruminations
Eric Karabell Blog
Fantasy advice, every day, all season