Second-half MLB betting guide

Best World Series, divisional value bets and teams to fade

Originally Published: July 16, 2014
By Dave Tuley | ESPN Insider

Steve Pearce, Adam JonesAP Photo/Patrick SemanskyThere is value on Adam Jones and the Baltimore Orioles at 14-1 to win the 2014 World Series.
LAS VEGAS -- The All-Star break isn't the exact halfway point of the season, but it's the natural time to reflect on what we've seen so far and try to predict what will happen in the remaining games before the postseason.

At the LVH SuperBook, the Oakland Athletics -- who were 15-1 in the World Series futures before the season started -- have joined the Los Angeles Dodgers and Detroit Tigers as the co-favorites at 9-2. The Washington Nationals and the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim (am I dating myself if I want to call them the California Angels?) are both currently 8-1, with the St. Louis Cardinals at 10-1 and the Baltimore Orioles at 14-1.

When we did our ESPN Insider MLB betting guide back in March, my top value bet was the San Francisco Giants at 20-1. That was looking like a great pick the first three months of the season as they were lowered all the way to 5-1 last month, but now the Dodgers have closed the gap in the NL West and the Giants are back up to 16-1. I'll stick with them as my top pick, but let's look at some more teams from a betting perspective.

We'll look at the best World Series bets, overrated and underrated teams and the top divisional picks in our second-half MLB betting guide.


Most underrated (teams with most betting value at current number)

Baltimore Orioles (14-1)

The Orioles lead the AL East by four games over the Blue Jays and five games over the Yankees (only the Tigers' 6½-game lead in the AL Central is bigger), yet the odds on the O's are higher than the rest of the top contenders. They were 30-1 just a few short weeks ago before pulling away right before the break, but 14-1 (or better if you can find it) looks like fair value.

Dave Tuley has covered the Las Vegas race and sports book scene since 1998 and runs his own website, ViewFromVegas.com.