Red flags for the Brewers

Milwaukee's secondary stats suggest a team that will fall back to the pack

Updated: May 26, 2014, 1:18 PM ET
By Paul Swydan | ESPN Insider

Ryan BraunBenny Sieu/USA TODAY Sports

The Milwaukee Brewers had a great start to the season and were the talk of the league in April. But after losing six of their past eight games through Saturday, their National League Central lead has shrunk to 1½ games, and they now sit in the No. 7 spot in ESPN.com's Power Rankings.

The question surrounding the Brewers is whether this is a blip on the radar of a true surprise team or signs of a team gravitating back to its true talent level in the middle of the NL pack.

One of the first things we look for when trying to determine whether to buy in on a team's breakout is its record in various margins of victory, particularly one-run games. It would be hard to paint Milwaukee as anything other than fortunate in these situations. The Brewers' 10-6 record gives them a .625 winning percentage in contests with a one-run margin, which is tops in the NL.