Angels overrated by experts

Looking at where projections differ most from our AL Forecaster panel

Originally Published: March 26, 2014
By Dan Szymborski | ESPN Insider

On Tuesday, I compared the projected win totals of National League teams from ESPN's Forecaster to the projected win totals from the ZiPS projection system to see where the biggest differences lie.

Today, we turn our attention to the American League, where there is a bit more disagreement between my computer and ESPN's experts.

As I did with the NL, I used Monte Carlo simulation to get estimated playoff probabilities derived from both the ZiPS and Forecaster projections. Division-by-division breakdowns can be found at the bottom.

Projections think Forecaster is underrating these teams

Houston Astros

ZiPS isn't exactly known for being enthusiastic about recent Astros teams, projecting last year's squad to go 57-105, with their estimated shot at winning the World Series being worse than 1,000-to-1. The relatively optimistic ZiPS projection of 68 wins is a change of pace for a Houston forecast.