Angels overrated by experts
Looking at where projections differ most from our AL Forecaster panel
Today, we turn our attention to the American League, where there is a bit more disagreement between my computer and ESPN's experts.
As I did with the NL, I used Monte Carlo simulation to get estimated playoff probabilities derived from both the ZiPS and Forecaster projections. Division-by-division breakdowns can be found at the bottom.
Projections think Forecaster is underrating these teams
ZiPS isn't exactly known for being enthusiastic about recent Astros teams, projecting last year's squad to go 57-105, with their estimated shot at winning the World Series being worse than 1,000-to-1. The relatively optimistic ZiPS projection of 68 wins is a change of pace for a Houston forecast.
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Eliminating defensive shifts is a really bad idea.