Ten who may not meet projections

Will the computer be correct on Jose Fernandez and Manny Machado?

Updated: March 5, 2014, 10:57 AM ET
By Dan Szymborski | ESPN Insider

Jose FernandezMarc Serota/Getty ImagesFantasy owners need to be wary of Jose Fernandez's projected stats for 2014.

Computer projection systems are useful tools in baseball analysis, but like any method of predicting the future, they're not flawless soothsayers. Statistics in baseball capture a lot of information about the players, and projection systems are good at wading through that information.

But just like scouts who make evaluations with their eyes, projection systems will be wrong. A lot.

Last week, I ran through 10 projections from the ZiPS projection system that I thought were surprisingly low, and I explained why the computer might be wrong. Today I am taking a look at projections that look a little bit too high, and and explaining why.

Which projections do I find surprisingly high this year? Here are the 10:


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Jose Fernandez | RHP | Miami Marlins
ZiPS projection: 12-5, 2.57 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 163 K, 151 ERA+, 4.5 WAR

Fernandez is one of the bright young stars in the game and will almost certainly be a huge asset for the Marlins so long as he remains healthy. Still, this projection appears too aggressive to me, especially on a rate basis.

ZiPS isn't going crazy with the innings (154), but that just makes that projection look even more aggressive. As terrific as Fernandez was in his rookie season, this is a surprisingly good projection for a computer system to make (the second-best projected ERA for a starter). For a pitcher with only one major league season, I'd like to be a little more careful.