Projecting the National League

The Phillies, Reds and Diamondbacks project to win 2012 division crowns

Originally Published: March 30, 2012
By Dan Szymborski | Baseball Think Factory
Roy Halladay Miles Kennedy/Getty ImagesRoy Halladay is back to lead what should be the National League's best rotation this season.

Using the ZiPS projection system, a Monte Carlo simulation and a few scary-sounding bits of math stuff, the 2012 season was simmed a million times to see which teams projected to come out on top.

For each team we've provided their projected record, as well as their odds of winning the division, making the playoffs and winning the World Series. Additionally, you'll find each club's 95th- and 5th-percentile projected win totals, which is essentially a best- and worst-case scenario for everyone.

Some predictions will end up looking prescient and some decidedly less so, but part of the fun of the baseball season is watching players and teams and shred all the expectations.

We have already projected the American League, and today we tackle the Senior Circuit.


National League East

The NL East looks stronger than it has in years, as four teams have a realistic shot at winning the division. The Philadelphia Phillies enter another year as the favorite but never by so small a margin, thanks to the team starting to show its age as the injuries pile up. Philadelphia did just win 102 games last year and the biggest reason, an amazing rotation, remains mostly intact. The Phillies may limp to October, but having Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels can paper over a lot of offensive faults.