Commentary

ZiPS sees Pujols just shy of Crown

Projecting the standard stat categories, Cardinals slugger falls short of Triple Crown

Updated: March 15, 2011, 12:42 PM ET
By Dan Szymborski | Baseball Think Factory
Albert PujolsMarc Serota/Getty ImagesAlbert Pujols has a good chance to finish on top in a number of hitting categories this season.

While baseball is a team sport, one of the fundamental aspects is the individual confrontation between the batter and the pitcher. Given the nature of the game, individual stats in baseball have an extra bit of prominence among fans that doesn't exist to the same extent in most other team sports. When it comes down to it, fans follow the individual leaders more than team totals. (How many people actually know that the Cincinnati Reds won the team Triple Crown last year?)

Since March is the month for making predictions, using the ZiPS projection system and the Monte Carlo method, I calculated estimated probabilities for some of the major categories. For rate stats, only players projected to qualify for the batting and ERA titles are included.