Commentary

Simulations show Texas has edge

World Series teams so evenly matched, it's nearly a toss-up

Originally Published: October 19, 2011
By Dan Szymborski | Baseball Think Factory
C.J. WilsonOtto Greule Jr/Getty ImagesAfter 100 World Series simulations, C.J. Wilson proves to be the difference.

The 2010 postseason was one of firsts for the Texas Rangers. In a single October, the Rangers won the franchise's first divisional series and first championship series, and made their first World Series appearance. Certainly a successful season by any measure for a club that previously had only a single playoff win in its history, but the Rangers then ran into the San Francisco Giants to earn another first -- their first World Series loss.

After sending the Detroit Tigers home in an American League Championship Series Game 6 that saw their offense pummel most of Detroit's rotation, the Rangers now face the surprising St. Louis Cardinals. Back in April, it wasn't much of a stretch to predict the Cardinals could win the NL wild-card berth, but it was the way the team did it -- catching the reeling Braves in the final month -- that was the big surprise.

At first glance, the teams are fairly well matched, with both offenses at or near the top of the league in runs scored. They both feature solid bullpens bolstered by shrewd midseason acquisitions. The Rangers' pitching staff was more successful as a whole than that of St. Louis during the regular season, but in the postseason, the Cardinals won't start Jake Westbrook or Kyle McClellan.

So who has the edge -- from a numerical standpoint -- going into the World Series? To get an idea of how the teams match up by the numbers, we used the same methodology we used last week to project the rest of the ALCS and NLCS.


To see why the Texas Rangers have the edge over the St. Louis Cardinals in the World Series, become an ESPN Insider.