Commentary

Who's next to 3,000 hits?

Projecting some prominent players' chances of reaching the elusive milestone

Updated: July 9, 2011, 2:05 PM ET
By Dan Szymborski | Baseball Think Factory
Alex RodriguezRick Osentoski/US PresswireAlex Rodriguez is next in line for 3,000 hits, but it's unclear who will come after him.

Well, Derek Jeter finally got his 3,000th hit. The last few turned out to be the most difficult, with a trip to the disabled list turning the last leg of Jeter's chase into a marathon.

While people confidently project the end of the 300-game winner, nobody thinks the 3,000-hit club is nearing extinction. So, who's next? The ZiPS projection system has eight players with at least a 1 percent chance and five with at least a 10 percent chance of collecting their 3,000th hit over the next eight years.


To see the projected chances of reaching 3,000 hits for the likes of Vlad, Ichiro, A-Rod, Miguel Cabrera and Starlin Castro -- as well as Jeter's chances of getting to 4,000 -- become an ESPN Insider today.