Commentary

Simulating the 2011 All-Star Game

Why this year could finally be the one for the NL to prevail

Originally Published: July 4, 2011
By Dan Szymborski | Baseball Think Factory
[+] EnlargeJeter/Reyes
Mike Stobe/Getty ImagesThe NL has a significant advantage at shortstop.

The All-Star starters and the majority of the All-Star rosters were announced Sunday afternoon, leaving us with our usual arguments about who was undeserving and who was snubbed. While the AL wins interleague competition pretty handily most years, the All-Star Game is generally more competitive. True, the NL's last win before last year's 3-1 victory was all the way back in 1997, but with a tie and five one-run games over that span, the competition was less one-sided than one would think from looking at the wins and losses.

Since waiting a week is no fun, we decided to simulate the All-Star Game, using ZiPS rest-of-season projections and Imagine Sports' simulation package, Diamond Mind Baseball. And since we're dealing with digitized players rather than flesh-and-blood ones, we simulated the All-Star Game 10,000 times.