Commentary

HitTracker: Breaking down the Derby

Examining home run distances to predict the 2010 Derby champ

Originally Published: July 5, 2010
By Greg Rybarczyk | Special to ESPN Insider
Getty ImagesDavid Ortiz has not won the Derby in three tries. Will the fourth time be the charm?

Predicting the Home Run Derby is not an exact science. That's because hitting a home run in a game is different from hitting one in batting practice, which is basically what the Derby is. As a result, we've seen guys like Bobby Abreu and Miguel Tejada, who aren't traditional mashers, win the Derby. Vlad Guerrero, another guy who's known for being more than just a home run hitter, has the longest Derby home run in my database, a 500-footer in San Francisco in 2007.

If we take a deeper look at this year's participants using the data I compile at HitTracker, we can get a pretty good sense of who will win this year's contest Monday night. Here's some information about each player: