Commentary

Kiss 'Em Goodbye: Florida Marlins

1997. 2003. 2009? The six-year thing didn't happen -- 2010 won't, either

Originally Published: October 1, 2009
By Buster Olney, Baseball Prospectus and Insider staff | ESPN Insider

Insider's series on MLB teams that are out of the playoff race continues with the Florida Marlins, who may well have the best all-around player in baseball in Hanley Ramirez -- but are not yet ready to make another postseason run. To see an archive of Kiss 'Em Goodbye, please go here.

Baseball Prospectus' preseason PECOTA projection: 71-91, fourth place
Current record: 85-74, third place

The six-year theory (1997, 2003) should have gotten them another championship in 2009. It didn't. Patterns: apparently unreliable in baseball.

To read Buster Olney's take on what went wrong for the Marlins and what's next, plus items from the rumor mill, number-crunching analysis from Baseball Prospectus, a draft recap and whom to watch in spring training, you must be an ESPN Insider. Insider