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The team that had the biggest change in its expected winning percentage however -- a 42-point gain, well over twice what the Cardinals added -- is the Florida Marlins. Their only trade was to bring in Nick Johnson from the Nationals, but he essentially replaces Emilio Bonifacio in the lineup, meaning you're replacing a .220-ish EqA with a .300-ish EqA. The picture is complicated by internal changes in the pitching staff that happened at the same time -- ditching Andrew Miller for now, getting Matt Lindstrom back from the DL -- that also helped to inflate their expected win total. Still, having the best win-percentage increase only gets them a four-point gain in their playoff odds, from just three percent to seven percent, which was also the fourth-largest improvement by any club. The system still likes the Phillies and Braves a lot more than it does the Marlins, and it doesn't see many opportunities for outdoing those two teams.

The single best player to move during the deadline was Cliff Lee, picked up by the Phillies. They also picked up Ben Francisco, who will be a useful outfield backup, and didn't give away anyone that was part of their playoff run. That combination netted the Phils a 23-point gain in their expected winning percentage, the third-best mark in the majors. Their odds gain was just slightly enough for second place, as they went from a 70 to a 76 percent chance of making the playoffs, a gain entirely concentrated in their chance of winning the division; their wild-card chances actually dropped.

The second-best team from an added-wins perspective -- just barely missing the second-best odds gain -- was the Tigers. Jarrod Washburn provides most of the lift, providing Detroit a big upgrade from Lucas French in the rotation, but they also benefit from Carlos Guillen's return from the DL (in part because that forced Josh Anderson out to Kansas City). Another part of the lift is that they still have nine games with the Indians, who rank as the largest casualty of deadline moves; the Tigers pick up more than two-thirds of an expected win just in those games against Cleveland. In all, they moved up 25 percentage points in record and six points -- from 29 to 35 percent -- in their playoff chances.

Next, we see the San Francisco Giants. They combined an 18-point gain in win percentage with a four-point gain in their playoff chances, but they are still outsiders; the gain was only from 13 to 17 percent. Their big moves were upgrades at first and second base, with Ryan Garko and Freddy Sanchez moving in. The fact that they get this kind of result from bringing in Garko and Sanchez, who can't really be considered big-name players, points out just how desperate the Giants were, particularly at second: Emmanuel Burriss, Matt Downs and Kevin Frandsen combined for a .187 EqA this year. Still, the Rockies and Dodgers are significant obstacles for them to overcome, and someone to improve on Ryan Sadowski in the fifth starter spot would have been nice.

The most prolific traders, the Red Sox, show modest gains in both their record (plus-16 points) and their odds (two points); once you're at 90 percent, like the Sox were, there isn't much room left to grow. Casey Kotchman and Victor Martinez were fine add-ons, but the Sox weren't exactly suffering at those positions this year, and they did give up some decent players like Justin Masterson to get them. Still, the playoff odds overwhelmingly point to a Yankees/Red Sox playoff tandem, one winning the division and the other winding up with the wild card.

As for everyone else, and all that activity? No one else gained in the standings.

Getty ImagesThis move might not pay off until the playoffs, assuming the White Sox get there.

On the flip side, the biggest losers in terms of record are considerably different from the biggest losers in terms of odds. The biggest losers in record tended to be teams who were already all but eliminated from playoff contention: the Indians, Pirates, Athletics and Nationals had a combined 0.7 percent chance of making the playoffs before the trading started, and they dropped all the way to 0.1 percent afterwards. That's an all-but-unnoticeable ripple in the sludge at the bottom of the pond. The Indians' projected record dropped a staggering 50 percentage points to "lead" everyone.

The biggest playoff-odds losers were the teams who were in contention but stood pat at the deadline while their competition made moves to improve; those gains the Cardinals, Phillies and Tigers ran up had to come from somewhere. They came, respectively, from the Braves (who dropped from 46 to 39 percent), the Cubs (dropping from 52 to 45 percent) and the White Sox (from 55 to 50 percent).

Wait a minute. The White Sox as losers? They didn't stand pat; they picked up Jake Peavy, who, if he wasn't hurt, would contend with Lee for the title of "best player traded." Their expected winning percentage also improved by nine points, largely due to their remaining games with the Indians. However, it is possible, from a making-the-playoffs perspective, that they might have done better not making the trade. Peavy is injured and is going to miss about half of what's left of the season, while two of the players they gave up, Clayton Richard and Aaron Poreda, were useful members of the team, and their expected contributions over two months were likely to exceed what Peavy can do in one.

Paradoxically, though, Peavy almost certainly would strengthen the team once already in the playoffs, assuming that happens. For the sake of argument, let's unreasonably assume that the Sox have a 50 percent chance of winning each playoff series. If he raises that by even two points, to 52 percent, he just raised their chances of winning the World Series, even with the drop in making the playoffs.

Is that significant? No, but it is interesting.

Clay Davenport is an author (and statistical guru) of Baseball Prospectus.