It's been a roller-coaster season for Alex Rodriguez: steroid revelations, hip surgery, a .219 batting average on balls in play, an inflated walk rate and five homers in his past eight games. In short, he's done plenty to confound expectations, both good and bad. Yet the ever-controversial 33-year-old slugger's .313 Equivalent Average through the first 81 games of the 2009 season is just two points off his PECOTA-weighted mean projection of .311.
PECOTA projections are fairly accurate over the course of a long season. But at the midpoint, some players (think Joe Mauer) are way outdoing their estimated numbers, while some (think Garrett Atkins) are way below. BP Daily explores.